> One of the questions of the 2026 acx prediction contest is whether Nvidia’s st... | Hacker News

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		koolba 23 days ago \| parent \| context \| favorite \| on: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction > One of the questions of the 2026 acx prediction contest is whether Nvidia’s stock price will close below $100 on any day in 2026. Maybe I’m missing something, but isn’t this just a standard American put option with a strike of $100 and expiry of Dec 31st?

amelius 23 days ago | [–]

No because if it goes to $99.99, you don't win much. With a prediction contest it is either you win or you lose.

mklyachman 23 days ago | | [–]

Not really. American put options will pay differently for 95 dollars vs 99 dollars, while this contract settles to 1 either which way.

throw-qqqqq 22 days ago | [–]

It’s a binary option.

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