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Right before the virus hit, unemployment was hitting record lows. (various unemployment records being about half a century old) The pay, adjusted for inflation, was starting to creep upward in a way that it hadn't for many years. If that isn't "really bringing back American jobs", how else would you judge it?


Apologies if I'm misrepresenting your point of view here; it sounds to me like you feel Trump was behind these improvements in the metrics.

What changes which he implemented do you feel where behind these improvements?

If I posited the idea that he was simply riding a wave of positive economic progress established under the Obama administration, how would you counter that?


You might be trying to be too smart for politics I'm afraid. Looking at real metrics? Trying to establish cause and effect? Having a good faith retrospective on prior policies? I'm not sure you'll find any of that in political discourse.


1. Regulations were severely cut. Those choke the life out of American business, making it uncompetitive. Maybe you like some of the regulations, but they have costs. Those costs aren't very visible to most people, because most people aren't trying to run a business, but they are huge.

2. Imports from less-regulated low-cost places like China were impacted by tariffs, favoring American workers. Retaliatory tariffs were largely unsuccessful.


Perhaps you are right on regulation but it is not clear that it has moved either of the metrics you mentioned. Looking at unemployment there is no deviation from the established trend during Trump's years in office.

https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-une...

Wage growth is more complex. However, this too doesn't seem to be immediately correlated with Trump's policies.

> During Obama’s last four years in office the average weekly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers went up 4.9%

https://www.factcheck.org/2019/06/are-wages-rising-or-flat/


I would counter that when looking at the causes of behavior in a highly dynamic system, you should look at more proximate causes, and ask you to enumerate the causes established by the Obama Administration you deem responsible for the positive upswing.

I'd furthermore question that anyone is very good at accurately assigning proximate causes for people doing what people do, but the more economically minded tend to get upset when you do that as they're rather fond of their equations.


To be fair, I said established under the Obama administration, not by the administration. In reality I think both were riding the wave following the 2008 collapse. As such we could probably point the finger at financial deregulation under George W Bush.


Yes, by many metrics things did look to be improving, but overall it's strongly true that Trump did not deliver what his populist base was looking for, and would not deliver it if given another four years. One thing that is telling in this regard is that the far dissident right, who were adamant supporters in 2016, have completely dropped support.




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