Nobody serious is under any illusion that Biden will not assume the Presidency. In a way, I think this kind of rhetoric empowers these kinds of protests and inspires people into thinking these actions might actually work.
In reality, the long term impact of these actions is only going to hurt Republicans. As per The Economist [1], in 2000 the election was decided by only ~600 votes in Florida but still only 36% of Gore supporters felt the election was fraudulent. Only 23% of Clinton voters felt the same in 2016. Yet now, with an election decided by margins an order of magnitude larger than in 2016 and three orders of magnitude larger than in 2000 a staggering 88% of Trump supporters surveyed said they believed the election was fraudulent. This kind of brazen hypocrisy, and now coupled by the actions today, are going to stick with the Republican party for a long time. Most of the Republicans I know are aghast. I'm sure the set of Republicans I talk to are not representative (mostly college educated professionals), and that they'll alter how they communicate with an outwardly liberal person like me (deliberately or instinctively). But I think the Republican party is going to recognize Trump as a catastrophe that is leaving a deep scar in the party.
Speaking as a relatively conservative person, I would love "The Party" to tell Trump to stuff it, as I would have for the past 4 years. The reality is, if you allow me to make a comparison, in the UK they had a similar situation in the Labor party with a leader chosen by the membership that was hated by "The Party". "The Party" went and told the leader to stuff it and eventually got rid of him. In the meantime they're on year 10 or 11 of continuous Tory rule, with at least another 3 ahead.
It's really nice for left wing types to talk about Republicans doing the right thing and going to all out war with Trump for the health of the democracy, I want him gone too. But the Realpolitik for Republicans on that one is a bunch of self sacrifice while the Democrats enjoy their endless summer. I don't really blame them for taking the path they did, even though I abjectly hate it.
Support for Trump was understandable in 2016 when it was unclear how he would actually behave in the Presidency. Most Republicans I know saw it as a faustian bargian: have a Republican wacko in the White House or a Democrat. But I really don't see this persisting in 2020. I would not be surprised if Republicans employ ranked choice voting for their primary, or increase the number of superdelegates or otherwise take steps to avoid one primary candidate succeeding through appealing to a minority of Republican primary voters. We're already seeing Republicans like Romney distinguishing himself through opposition to Trump.
Ultimately who knows - Trump might actually live up to his promise to run in 2024. But I am dubious that Trumpism will be anything but an aberration in the party. He managed to lose as an incumbent. That's a substantial failure, and one I think Republicans will remember.
I agree, unless the GOP leadership already has been filled with his true believers (I don't know, I don't pay good enough attention), they're going to go the Democrat route with a lot more institutional control to prevent a Trump type from winning again. At the end of the day, the last thing any party machine wants is to be marginalized by a single member, especially an entryist like Trump.
I agree we should take them seriously for what they are: a group of agitators that aren't going to actually effect any change. No amount of protest or agitation among these groups is going to alter the outcome of the 2020 election. The main harm they're doing is to the reputation of the Republican party itself. The notion that there is any possibility of overturning the election is counterfactual. Legitimate avenues of disputing the election have been explored and exhausted. Biden is already working with a transition team. All important institutions like the military, judiciary, and others recognize Biden as the 46th President.
I agree, we need to take these events seriously. And the ones talking about a coup aren't taking them seriously. The staggeringly high rate of belief in a fraudulent election, and agitators like the ones we're seeing today are very serious indicators in their own right. Resorting to embellishment and hyperbole ultimately diminishes is not being serious.
Are they now controlling the military? Have they taken control of the media and silenced their critics? Have they rounded up in a sudden sweep all those in government who might oppose them? Are they pushing out prepared messages about how this is being done for the benefit of the people? Have they actually done anything involving taking control and establishing themselves as the legitimate authority, deposing the existing government?
If this is a coup, it's the shittest coup ever, being done by the least competent coup conspirators I've ever seen.
One does wonder if there is any kind of endgame strategy here. Are they going to occupy the Capitol building until Jan 20 so they can claim that Biden isn't president because the vote didn't happen?
This seems a bit spur of the moment. Also, didn't President Trump say he was going to lead them to the Capitol building in his speech? Where is he?
